Three contests have captured global attention in a year marked by a flurry of high-stakes elections due to their far-reaching implications for multiple nations and economies. As India and Mexico, two of the world's largest economic powerhouses, undergo historic leadership transitions, and another nation grapples with the consequences of retaining its incumbent, the outcomes of these pivotal elections promise to shape the future trajectories of their respective countries. This introduction delves into the campaigns, challenges, and critical issues that have defined these closely watched electoral battles, offering insights into emerging leaders' legacies and potential impacts.
With all of the elections happening this year, there has been a whirlwind of news, with updates published almost by the minute. Three elections have received some of the most coverage due to their impact on multiple nations and economies: the presidential elections in Mexico and South Africa and the election for India’s Prime Minister.
Here is an update on three of the most watched and debated elections this year. It also provides a brief overview of the candidates' journeys and stories and some of the key topics that could impact their leadership's legacy and shape the future of these countries.
Mexico
A milestone in a country where gender-based violence is a severe and ongoing problem, the new leader of the world's 16th most powerful economy is a woman. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum was the front-runner in a long and sometimes dangerous presidential race. Surprisingly, Mexico has outpaced the US in terms of gender parity in politics for years. Fifty percent of lawmakers in Mexico’s lower house of Congress are women, female governors lead nearly a quarter of the country’s 32 states, and five of eleven Supreme Court justices are women.
According to Lila Abed, Director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, part of women’s political success stems from a groundbreaking 2014 law requiring parties to ensure 50 percent of their candidates are female. “There is a very healthy representation of women in Mexican politics,” Abed said. “But it doesn’t necessarily mean they will place women’s issues at the forefront of their agenda.”
New Madam President
President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum's "empathy" was a topic of debate. Her leading competitor accused her of acting cold and heartless. "An ice lady," the opponent said. Sheinbaum didn't take the bait. Instead, she listed a series of allegedly corrupt actions by her female opponent. It was typical Sheinbaum: analytical, disciplined, and calm.
An environmental engineer and former mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum is a seasoned politician with a diverse background. Her credentials encompass her tenure in public office and her contribution to the scientific community, having shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as a contributing author to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on global warming.
However, Sheinbaum's most significant asset in her current political endeavors is her close relationship with Mexico's incumbent president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whom she is widely regarded as a protégé and staunch ally. Sheinbaum's candidacy holds particular significance in Mexico's constitutional framework, which imposes a strict one-term limit of six years on the presidency. This provision underscores the pivotal role of presidential successors in shaping the nation's future trajectory, as they have the potential to either perpetuate or diverge from the policies and agendas of their predecessors. Consequently, Sheinbaum's alignment with López Obrador's populist and left-leaning ideology has positioned her as a natural heir to his political legacy, should she emerge victorious in the upcoming elections.
Sheinbaum's election was largely seen as a given—she was far ahead of her nearest competitor, Xóchitl Gálvez, an Indigenous, pro-business tech entrepreneur representing several opposition parties, including Mexico's traditional leftist and conservative parties.
Mexico's upcoming elections will overhaul the political landscape across all levels of government. All 128 Senate and 500 Chamber of Deputies seats are up for grabs, potentially shifting federal legislative power. Nine governorships and a staggering 19,000 municipal and state legislature seats are also contested, reshaping regional and local governance. This comprehensive process allows citizens to shape Mexico's future trajectory, determining leadership, policies, and priorities that will guide the nation's development in the coming years.
"It's a huge democratic exercise for Mexican citizens," Abed said. Voting is not mandatory in Mexico, but there is generally a high turnout. Abed said around 60 percent of eligible voters have historically voted in presidential elections.
Claudia Sheinbaum's election as Mexico's first female president and her Jewish heritage have sparked discussions, given Mexico's large Catholic population. Although not religiously observant, Sheinbaum identifies as culturally Jewish and has previously addressed her heritage.
Sheinbaum's maternal grandparents were Bulgarian Jewish immigrants to Mexico, while her paternal grandparents fled Lithuania in the 1920s. Her parents were born in Mexico. During her campaign, Sheinbaum stated she considers herself a woman of faith but is not religiously affiliated, which may explain the limited discussion about her potentially becoming Mexico's first Jewish president.
Challenges President Sheinbaum Faces
Migrants and drugs - why Mexico's election matters to the US
Organized crime in Mexico has become so powerful that it extorts businesses ranging from gas stations to avocado growers and trucking companies. Even the poorest residents face extortion from criminal groups. Rising violence and extortion are driving many Mexicans to flee to the U. S. Despite promising a "hugs, not bullets" approach, López Obrador has failed to curb the country's historically high homicide rate.
Mexico experiences around 30,000 murders annually, compared to around 18,500 in the U. S. in 2023. The violence is also impacting elections, with over 30 candidates killed so far this year.
The Associated Press reports around 27 candidates in Mexico have been killed this year, while The New York Times found at least 36 killed since last June. Dozens more have faced threats and kidnappings.
"Why doesn't high violence carry a political cost?" said Jorge Buendía of Mexico's Buendía & Márquez polling firm. He explained that no party or government has curbed the violence, so none are seen as efficient.
Handling the Mexican drug cartels – largely blamed by US authorities for the deadly epidemic of fentanyl overdoses and deaths in the US – is not the only daunting issue for the Mexican presidential candidates. President Claudia Sheinbaum has to deal with the record number of US-bound foreign migrants flowing through Mexico. This was a burning topic in the US and Mexico’s 2024 electoral race.
The scenario is complicated by the possibility of the return to the US presidency of Donald Trump, whose strident positions on migrants and drugs have raised eyebrows south of the border. Mr. Trump has vowed to carry out the "largest deportation operation" in US history to remove undocumented migrants already in the country if he returns to the White House.
Some Mexican media commentators are calling a possible second Trump presidency "the elephant in the room" for Mexico's presidential hopefuls.
President-elect Sheinbaum has emphasized the importance of Mexico's relationship with the US and pledged to pursue good bilateral cooperation broadly. She has vowed to continue with "pride" the foreign policy of her mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Relations between the US and Mexico during the six years Mr. López Obrador has been in power have not been without tension, with disagreements flaring over US counter-narcotics operations inside Mexico, as well as over measures taken by the US on its border to try to control migrants. Aware that nationalist pride plays strongly in Mexico, she made the point in one of the last presidential debates of stressing that their governments would not let themselves be cowed or bullied by the US, especially over migration.
During her campaign, President Sheinbaum declared that there would be "no more submission in foreign policy," saying that Mr. López Obrador's center-right predecessors had allowed themselves to be "humiliated" by the US.
"Coordination, yes, subordination, no," she said, summarizing her vision of relations with the US in March. “We will always tell them [the US] it’s better to build bridges rather than walls," she added a few weeks later.
India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared victory for his alliance in India’s general election, claiming a mandate to move forward with his agenda. “Today’s victory is the victory of the world’s largest democracy,” Modi told the crowd at his party’s headquarters Tuesday. He said Indian voters had “shown immense faith” in his party and National Democratic Alliance coalition.
On Wednesday, June 5, 2024, official results from India's Election Commission revealed that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured a comfortable majority by winning 294 seats, surpassing the 272-seat threshold required to form the government. However, this tally fell short of the resounding victory many had anticipated for the ruling coalition. Notably, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the dominant force within the NDA and the Hindu nationalist party currently in power, failed to secure an outright majority on its own for the first time since its sweeping victory in 2014. The BJP secured 240 seats, a significant decline from the record-breaking 303 seats it captured in the 2019 elections.
This outcome underscores the dynamic nature of India's vibrant democracy and the shifting political landscape. While the NDA retained its position as the leading coalition, the BJP's performance highlights its challenges in consolidating its support base amidst a diverse and evolving electorate. The results underscore the importance of coalition building and the need for parties to address the concerns and aspirations of various regional and demographic groups across India's vast and culturally rich landscape.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who claimed victory for his alliance in an election seen as a referendum on his decade in power, is a popular but polarizing leader who has presided over a fast-growing economy while advancing Hindu nationalism.
Modi, 73, is only the second Indian prime minister to win a third straight term. To supporters, Modi is a larger-than-life figure who has improved India's standing in the world, helping to make its economy the world's fifth-largest and streamlining the country's vast welfare program, which serves around 60% of the population. To some, he may even be revered as more than human.
Critics argue that he has eroded India's democracy, advanced divisive politics targeting Muslims, wielded strong-arm tactics against political opponents, suppressed independent media, and quashed dissent.
South Africa
South Africa's president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has been re-elected for a second term after the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) agreed to form a coalition. Ramaphosa won the vote against Julius Malema, one of the Economic Freedom Fighters. Earlier, the pro-business DA decided to vote for Ramaphosa as part of a unity government deal with the ANC, setting aside their rivalry.
This centrist coalition prevailed over more leftwing ANC factions that wanted to align with parties pushing for nationalization and land seizures from white farmers.
The ANC lost its parliamentary majority in the 29 May elections for the first time since 1994, with its vote share dropping from 57. 5% in 2019 to 40. 2%, as supporters defected to breakaway parties amid chronic unemployment and worsening public services. The DA, with almost 22% of the vote, will back Ramaphosa's re-election as president. In contrast, its MPs will vote for an ANC speaker of parliament in exchange for the deputy speaker position, according to DA leader John Steenhuisen.
The African National Congress and its most significant rival, the white-led, pro-business Democratic Alliance, agreed on Friday to work together in South Africa's new government of national unity. Once unthinkable, the accord allowed President Cyril Ramaphosa to win a second term in office. He was re-elected by lawmakers with 283 votes. The deal between two sharply antagonistic parties is the most momentous political shift in South Africa since Nelson Mandela led the ANC to victory in the 1994 election that marked the end of apartheid.
In conclusion
There are still many more elections for world leaders to come this year. A year of significant changes will shape the world for decades. We can only wait, see, and report on the events. This is an exciting time to research and report on the future. The future holds significant political shifts and transformations, making it a pivotal moment to observe and document the unfolding events that will undoubtedly shape the global landscape for years.
Comments